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By Jonah Grinkewitz

A survey of Hampton Roads residents shows some evidence that President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race may not have been a boon for Democrats’ chances of victory in this November’s election.

Identification with major political parties has also dipped since 2020 and winning over independent voters could prove crucial for Virginia’s election outcomes.

Those are among the findings in the 2024 Life in Hampton Roads Survey regarding politics and political opinions. This is one of the chapters in the 15th annual edition of the survey conducted by ������ϲ�����'s Social Science Research Center.

A total of 640 telephone surveys were completed between June 4 and Aug. 16.

The political section of the survey focused on four topics: baseline party identification and ideology; the Senate race; the presidential election; and election security.

Although respondents leaned toward the Democratic party over the Republican party (25.5% vs. 19.8%), the results showed a downward trend in overall party identification compared to recent years with more respondents identifying as independent voters (38.3%).

“The survey wrapped up just as the Democratic Party was making a major play for independent voters with the Democratic National Convention,” said Jesse Richman, associate professor of political science at ������ϲ�����. “If the Democrats, or the Republicans, can find a way to reconnect with voters who are increasingly disenchanted with both parties, it will likely make a major difference in the election.”

In the U.S. Senate race, the survey shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is positioned to win Hampton Roads and the overall race in Virginia over his Republican challenger Hung Cao, although by a smaller margin of victory than when he last ran in 2018. When asked about their preference in the Senate race, 61% of respondents who named a major party said they would support the Democratic candidate and 39% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

Data collection for the survey took place during a period when President Biden removed himself from the contest. After Biden withdrew, a question was added to the survey that gave the final 237 survey respondents a chance to weigh in on that decision. More than 82% of respondents supported Biden’s decision to not run for reelection in 2024 with opposition concentrated among Republicans.

Polling the presidential race was complicated by changes at the top of the Democratic ticket, and the survey ultimately included three versions of a question about respondents’ preferences: a question asking about support for Joe Biden; a question asking about support for “the Democratic candidate”; and a question asking about support for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The combined data shows the Democratic candidate (whether Biden or Harris) winning 56% of the regional two-party vote and former Republican president Donald Trump winning 43.8% of the vote. This is a performance in Hampton Roads consistent with a close outcome statewide.

But, if the responses are restricted to after Biden dropped out of the race, the outlook of the race looks worse for Democrats. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was polling at 42.6% and afterwards he jumped to 45.2%.

“The subsample sizes are small, but the post-Biden-drop performance by the Democratic presidential candidate in this regional survey should remind Democrats that taking Virginia for granted would be a mistake,” Richman said.

In the final section of the survey, more than 80% of respondents indicated they were very or somewhat satisfied with election security at their polling place and less than 5% of respondents reported being intimidated by someone at their polling place in the past 10 years.

You can read the full politics and political opinions chapter on the SSRC website.

The Life in Hampton Roads survey is designed to gain insight into residents’ perceptions of the quality of life in the region as well as other topics of local interest, such as perceptions of police, the economy, education and health. The remainder of the survey will be released in the coming months.